AHL APBA HOCKEY LEAGUE.AHL general

Author	Message / Information
bradu Quote \| Reply \|	interesting study I did... posted on: 1/18/2009 4:20:18 PM I just did a quick study to test out a theory I've had with apba for a long time, and I am astounded at the results... I just wanted to test out the value of having a pure fighter on your 4th line as opposed to a more skilled player if one is available. I tested out 5 seasons each with Colton Orr on 4th line in one test, and Richard Zednik on 4th line in the other test. This was the ONLY change I made, I did not change anything else about any of my other lines, shift numbers, nothing. Without going into too many details, the overall result shocked me. My team averaged a whopping 11.8 pts HIGHER in the standings with Orr dressed as opposed to Zednik! I couldn't believe it. My expectation going in was that it would be relatively even. That Zednik's handful of points might even make the difference in one or two games, but that neither guy would have a decided advantage. In trying to understand what happened here, these are my theories on why it worked out that way. A skill player like Zednik demands more ice time. He averaged 3 minutes per game more than Orr, despite the same shift numbers assigned to their lines. As such, he's skimming those 3 minutes off the ice time of the other players at his position, and in fact, likely the entire 4th line played more ice time and thus skimmed off the top lines ice time. Those few minutes appear to make a HUGE difference. On 4th line, a skill player like Zednik just doesn't have a chance to put up big numbers, even if he does get a bit more ice time. Have you ever noticed a 4th liner putting up even decent numbers on 4th line? *perhaps there's more going on in the PHY and INT ratings than I previously thought. While Orr didn't put up any sort of offensive numbers, the team did average fewer goals allowed with him in the lineup. Anyway, chance plays a factor as well...if I ran 100 tests I don't know if the numbers would be quite as drastic, but I felt that 5 sims each was enough to at least have some merit. Take it for what you will. But after seeing this, I have to think that the tough guys have a bit more value than just a handful of magic beans.
brad_L Quote \| Reply \|	interesting study I did... replied on: 1/28/2009 7:33:14 PM That is pretty interesting! I'd like to do a 100 or so sims if I had the time, see if it sticks!
chrisy Quote \| Reply \|	interesting study I did... replied on: 1/29/2009 1:35:32 AM I just took all my rough guys out for more skilled guys against the Isles and got destroyed. Maybe there is something behind it or it could be just the luck of the draw.
bradu Quote \| Reply \|	interesting study I did... replied on: 1/29/2009 2:07:57 AM well yeah, you can't base ANYTHING on one game, really. But I do think many people overlook the fact that a tough guy has value in apba.
dbrooks Quote \| Reply \|	interesting study I did... replied on: 7/10/2009 4:54:45 PM There’s another factor involved here, specifically that Zednik is a primary-position (p-p) LW whereas Orr is RW only. Assuming you didn’t ‘switch’ Zednik’s p-p (to RW) before your test, with him in the lineup you would have been skating 5 p-p LW’s and just 3 p-p RW’s. That certainly would have affected the distribution of ice time, yet not ‘necessarily’ to your team’s detriment. What it ‘will’ do is result in more fragmentation of your ‘intended’ Lines. During the course of any game, especially in the aftermath of special-teams play (including 4X4), the computer coach will often skate ‘makeshift’ Lines, which almost always consist of players at their p-p’s. In general, a high amount of special-teams play will result in a high amount of fragmentation. I’d like to see you run more tests (even 5 sims each again) with Zednik as a p-p RW. Even then, conclusions would be iffy, nonetheless its interesting and definitely food-for-thought. Don / Pittsburgh
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